Covid UK: Daily cases more than double to 22,868 but deaths drop 40%

Britain’s daily Covid cases more than doubled in a week today but deaths plunged 40 per cent — in another clear sign the vaccines have severed the link between infections and fatalities.

The Department of Health posted another 22,868 infections in the past 24 hours, an increase of 115 per cent on the 10,633 recorded last week. 

It is the highest daily case number since late January when the second wave was dying down, and the biggest week-on-week surge in infections since October last year. But there were just three deaths registered today, compared to five a week ago. 

Daily Covid fatalities have ticked upwards in the past week, with an average of 17 victims now compared to nine in the middle of the month — a far cry from the levels seen in previous waves.  

In a clear sign of the ‘vaccine effect’, the last time cases were at around 22,000 and rising was in early December, when there were roughly 400 Covid deaths a day and the second wave was starting to spiral. 

There are currently on average 211 Covid hospital admissions each day across the UK, which is double the amount at the beginning of May. In early December, the country was averaging 1,500 daily hospitalisations. 

New Health Secretary Sajid Javid jumped on the promising figures this afternoon, saying he saw ‘no reason’ the final unlocking should be delayed beyond July 19.

‘While we decided not to bring forward Step 4, we see no reason to go beyond July 19, because, in truth, no date we choose comes with zero risk for Covid,’ he told the Commons during his first speech to MPs after taking over from his disgraces predecessor. ‘We know we cannot simply eliminate it, we have to learn to live with it.’

And Boris Johnson confirmed today it was ‘looking set fair’ that England’s long-anticipated ‘freedom day’ would go ahead. But the Prime Minister ruled out any earlier easings of the remaining restrictions.  

Britain has so far inoculated 44.4million adults with first doses — or 84.4 per cent of the population — and 32.5million with second doses — or 61.9 per cent.

The country’s infection rate is being driven up by a record number of people testing positive in Scotland, where daily cases have surpassed the January peak.

Nearly 3,300 people tested positive today, which is the most in a single day ever north of the border. Scotland’s infection rate is now 258.9 cases per 100,000 people, more than double England’s 128.7 per 100,000. 

Scotland is dealing with an outbreak of the highly infectious Indian ‘Delta’ variant and its case rate is being driven up due to a testing blitz launched to curb the spread of the mutant strain. But its hospitalisation rate remains at 25 admissions a day, far below the almost 200 in early January at the peak of the second wave.

Newly appointed Health Secretary Sajid Javid (left) is expected to signal that England’s Covid restrictions can be eased as planned on July 19. He was appointed by Boris Johnson over the weekend after Matt Hancock resigned after an affair with his aide was revealed

This graph shows the proportion of people who catch Covid that are dying from the disease by age group. The rate has fallen markedly among older people, who are most at risk from the virus, since the vaccine roll-out began in January

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In another day of Covid news:

• Crowds broke into applause at Wimbledon’s Centre Court for Oxford vaccine creator Dame Sarah Gilbert; 
• Boris Johnson claimed he did sack Health Secretary Matt Hancock as soon as he saw the story about his affair;
• Study suggested Pfizer and Moderna vaccines could provide lifetime protection against Covid;
• Leading Oxford scientist saws booster jabs are not needed this Autumn because two doses work so well against the Indian variant;
• Spain today said it would only let Britons who are ‘fully vaccinated’ or have a negative Covid test enter the country;
• Mother-of-three, 47, dies after AstraZeneca jab sparked blood clots on her brain which led to a stroke.

Mr Javid said he was ‘very confident’ that the remaining restrictions could be eased on July 19.

He told the Commons: ‘The more people that are getting vaccinated, we’re seeing clear evidence that we’re breaking the link — and this is absolutely crucial — between people getting infected by Covid, so the number of cases, versus those that are ending up, sadly, in hospital or even in some cases losing their lives.

‘The more evidence we see of that, the more confident that can make us that we’ll put this pandemic behind us.

‘That’s what gives me confidence about July 19 and all the data that I’ve seen – yesterday I sat down and discussed it with the experts, some of my colleagues – it’s very clear that we’re heading in the right direction and I am very confident about that date, July 19.’

He added: ‘We owe it to the British people, who have sacrificed so much, to restore their freedoms as quickly as we possibly can and not to wait a moment longer than we need to.

‘With the numbers heading in the right direction, all while we protect more and more people each day, July 19 remains our target date.’ 

The former Home Secretary and Chancellor said he spent Sunday going over data and ‘testing it to the limit’ to understand whether restrictions could be eased. 

He took over from Matt Hancock at the weekend, after he resigned from the position when his affair with an aide was revealed. Mr Hancock also admitted breaking his own social distancing rules.

Mr Johnson told reporters during a campaign visit to Batley that he wanted to use the ‘next three weeks or so really to complete as much as we can’ of the vaccine rollout to bolster the nation’s defences against the disease.

The Prime Minister said ‘with every day that goes by’ it is clearer to him and his scientific experts that ‘we’re very likely to be in a position on July 19 to say that really is the terminus and we can go back to life as it was before Covid as far as possible’.

He said: ‘Although there are some encouraging signs and the number of deaths remains low and the number of hospitalisations remains low, though both are going up a bit, we are seeing an increase in cases.

‘So we think it’s sensible to stick to our plan to have a cautious but irreversible approach, use the next three weeks or so really to complete as much as we can of that vaccine rollout – another five million jabs we can get into people’s arms by July 19.

‘And then with every day that goes by it’s clearer to me and all our scientific advisers that we’re very likely to be in a position on July 19 to say that really is the terminus and we can go back to life as it was before Covid as far as possible.’

On a visit to St Thomas’ Hospital in central London this morning, the former Home Secretary Mr Javid said: ‘I want to see the restrictions lifted and life going back to normal as quickly as possible and right here and now, that is my absolute priority.

‘I want to see those restrictions lifted as soon as we can, as quickly as possible.

‘In terms of the roadmap to that you will have to wait for my statement to Parliament later today.’ 

The green vertical lines show participants’ antibody levels when they were given the first vaccine (V1), 28 days after that (V1+28 days), the second jab (V2), 28 days after that jab (V2+28 days), the third booster injection (V3), 14 days after that (V3+14) and 28 days after the booster (V3+28). The findings show that the antibody response increased after each jab and were at their highest, by a small margin, 28 days after the booster injection

Professor Sir Andrew Pollard said there is ‘no indication at the moment that we need boosters’, despite his study showing that the third jab gave high protection against Covid

Separate data today showed fewer than one in a thousand people who catch Covid in England now die from the disease.

Scientists at Cambridge University estimate the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) of coronavirus has been driven down to 0.085 per cent thanks to the country’s hugely successful vaccine rollout. 

For comparison, the team at Cambridge’s Medical Research Council (MRC) biostatistics unit estimated that about one in 90 cases (1.1 per cent) resulted in death at the end of the second wave.  

In the most vulnerable over-75s group, the IFR is now thought to be under 2 per cent after plummeting from 17 per cent during the winter peak in January.

Experts told MailOnline that while the findings were encouraging, the death rate will likely increase in the coming weeks as a result of the rise of the Indian variant.

The MRC ‘nowcasting’ unit estimates the number of infections that lead to fatalities based on official data including daily Covid cases, deaths and hospital admissions. It also takes into account asymptomatic cases who are missed by the centralised testing scheme.

Dr Simon Clarke, a microbiologist at Reading University, said it was likely the number of infections leading to deaths would rise in the coming weeks because of the rapid rise in cases over the past two months.

‘We also have got to remember that what we are dealing with now is an increasing situation (of cases) and an increasing rate of infection,’ he told MailOnline.

‘Most people who have had the infection are in the early stages of it so they won’t have died yet.

‘I think it will go up later on, but it won’t go anywhere near the one in 90 (at the peak of the second wave), but I expect more than one in a thousand.’

Asked whether the July 19 easing was likely to go ahead, he said this would ‘probably’ happen.

‘There is evidence — good evidence — it seems that the vaccine is working and the vaccines are protecting’ against serious disease and death, he added.

Britain has been administering Covid vaccines in order to reach ‘herd immunity’ — when the virus stops spreading in the community because enough people have antibodies to fight it off. 

The jabs have been shown to be up to 96 per cent effective at stopping severe illness and hospitalisation from the Indian variant after two doses — and even better at preventing deaths.

But one dose is significantly weaker against the new strain than older versions of the virus, which prompted the four-week delay of the original June 21 Freedom Day because millions of over-40s are still to get their follow-up shot.

The Government is considering plans to administer booster doses to older age groups in the Autumn, but a leading Oxford scientist today said there is no need for the extra inoculations.

Professor Andrew Pollard, the lead researcher behind trials of the AstraZeneca vaccine, said sending the extra doses to developing countries where the most vulnerable are yet to receive any jab would be a better use of the UK’s supplies.

His comments came despite his team at Oxford finding that giving a booster to people months after they’ve been double-jabbed brings their immunity levels back to their peak.

The trial of 90 Britons showed for the first time that the third dose ‘significantly’ boosts antibody and T-cell counts, key indicators that the body is primed to defend against Covid.

Two doses of the AstraZeneca jab have been shown to reduce hospitalisations by more than 90 per cent against both the Indian and Kent variants. But there is nothing in the data to show that a third jab would improve on that figure, Professor Pollard said.

Last week, the former Health Secretary Matt Hancock promised the Government would set out plans for an autumn booster programme within the next few weeks.

Professor Pollard said: ‘This is about preparedness. The study shows we can boost responses with extra AstraZeneca vaccines.

‘So that’s a good tool if needed. It is about preparedness rather than proving we need it. We still need more data for that.’

He added that there is ‘no indication at the moment that we need boosters’. It is expected that immunity will wane over time, but ‘it won’t go to zero’.